一目均衡表(Ichimoku云图)

| N;˜󰀀 > N~WdeY[¤ > mñQeb€ˆSR󰀀g• > N󰀀vîWGˆaW󰀀 An Introduction to Ichimoku

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Japanese charting technique was developed before World War II with the aim of portraying - in a snapshot - where the price was heading and when was the right time to enter or exit the market. This was all performed without the aid of any other technical analysis technique (or study).

The word Ichimoku can be translated to mean \"a glance\" or \"one look\". Kinko translates into \"equilibrium\" or \"balance\with respect to price and time, and Hyo is the Japanese word for \"chart\". Thus, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo simply means \"a glance at an equilibrium chart\undertake.

Invented by a Japanese journalist with a pen name of \"Ichimoku Sanjin\charts have become a popular trading tool in Japan, not only with the equity market, but in the currency, bond, futures, commodity and options markets as well. The technique was published over 30 years ago but has only gained international attention within the last few years.

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Figure 1. Definition of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Calculation

The Ichimoku chart consists of five lines. The calculation for four of these lines involves taking only the midpoints of previous highs and lows, similar to moving average studies. Yet even with this simplicity, the completed chart is able to present a clear perspective of the price action.

The five lines, as shown in Figure 1, are calculated as follows:

1) Tenkan-Sen = Conversion Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past 9 periods

2) Kijun-Sen = Base Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past 26 periods

3) Chikou Span = Lagging Span = Today's closing price plotted 26 periods behind

4) Senkou Span A = Leading Span A = (Tenkan-Sen + Kijun-Sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead

5) Senkou Span B = Leading Span B = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past 52 periods, plotted 26 periods ahead

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Kumo = Cloud = Area between Senkou Span A and B

Ichimoku uses three key time periods for its input parameters: 9, 26, and 52. When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long. These parameters, thus, represent one and a half week, one month, and two months, respectively. Now that the trading week is 5 days, one may want to modify the parameters to 7, 22, and 44.

Interpretation

As can be seen from the formulas, Ichimoku is very similar to moving average studies. And like moving averages, buy and sell signals are given with the crossover technique.

A bullish signal is issued when the Tenkan-Sen (orange line) crosses the Kijun-Sen (purple line) from below. Conversely, a bearish signal is issued when the Tenkan-Sen crosses the Kijun-Sen from above.

Moreover, there are, in fact, different levels of strengths for the buy and sell signals of an Ichimoku chart. First, if there was a bullish crossover signal and the price, at that time, was trading above the Kumo (or cloud), this would be considered a very strong buy signal. In contrast, if there was a bearish crossover signal and the price, at that time, was trading below the Kumo, this would be considered a very strong sell signal. Secondly, a normal buy or sell signal would be issued if the price was trading within the Kumo when the crossover took place. Thirdly, a weak buy signal would be issued if there was a bullish crossover that occurred while the price was trading below the Kumo. On the other hand, a weak signal would be issued if there was a bearish crossover that occurred when the price was trading above the Kumo.

Another striking feature of the Ichimoku charting technique is the identification of support and resistance levels. These

levels can be predicted by the presence of the Kumo. The Kumo can also be used to help identify the prevailing trend of the market. If the price is above the Kumo, the prevailing trend is said to be up. And if the price is below the Kumo, the prevailing trend is said to be down.

A final feature of Ichimoku is the Chikou Span. This line can also be used to determine the strength of the buy or sell signal. If the Chikou Span was below the closing price and a sell signal was issued, then the strength is with the sellers, otherwise it is a weak signal. Conversely, if there was a buy signal and the Chikou Span was above the price, then there is strength to the upside, otherwise it can be considered a weak buy signal. This feature can also be incorporated into the other signals.

Application

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Most traditional technical analysis techniques are based on the open, high, low, close or average price. Others may use volatility while fixed scales such as Fibonacci numbers have also been applied. But the results are the same. Support and resistance levels are always depicted as a point or a line.

With Ichimoku charts, it is the Kumo that quantifies support and resistance levels and the Kumo that can be used to project these levels into the future. It's therefore important to note that (unlike its traditional counterparts) the support/resistance level given by the Kumo appears as a layer of varying thickness, with the thickness being related to prior market volatility.

Let's now illustrate the Ichimoku technique with an example.

Figure 2. GBP/USD ProSticks Ichimoku Daily Chart

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Figure 2 is an Ichimoku daily chart of GBP/USD. As can be seen, the price was in a trading range for about two months between September and November 2004, trading below the Kumo which acted as a resistance level. A weak buy signal (one red up arrow) followed by a strong sell signal (three blue down arrows) and then another weak buy signal occurred during this period. After the last buy signal, the price subsequently pierced through the Kumo and an upside breakout followed.

Then in January 2005, the price retraced from its highs and traded within the Kumo for about a month without any

direction. The price then surged back above the Kumo and as can be seen, the future support and resistance level from

March 2005 onwards can be quantified. With Ichimoku's theory, only when the price trades below this level can the uptrend be considered over.

Let's now combine Ichimoku with traditional support and resistance theory: previous highs and lows will act as support and/or resistance in the future.

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Figure 3. USD/JPY ProSticks Ichimoku Daily Chart

Figure 3 is an Ichimoku daily chart of USD/JPY. Between August and October 2004, the price was in a trading range within the Kumo, which acted as a support level. At point A, the price tested the bottom of the Kumo and this support level held. Afterwards, the price traded around this level before it surged temporarily higher but failed to create new highs. Soon after, the price retested the low (point B) made by point A. This coincided with a break below the Kumo which has since narrowed (i.e. lower volatility) and soon afterwards a huge downtrend commenced once the previous lows were taken out.

In general, the thickness of the Kumo can be related to strength of the current support/resistance level. A thin Kumo implies the current volatility of the market has lessened and the price has been narrowed into a range that a strong

breakout to either side is imminent. On the other hand, a thick Kumo implies a strong support/resistance level coupled with high volatility.

Short-term/Long-term Implications

One might wonder then what implications Ichimoku has regarding short-term versus long-term trading. One general application is that by comparing a daily and a weekly chart, a price channel can be identified.

This can be illustrated with the USD/JPY weekly chart in Figure 4.

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Figure 4. USD/JPY ProSticks Ichimoku Weekly Chart

One can quickly observe that the price has been trading below the Kumo on a weekly basis for the past two and a half years. Comparing this with the daily chart in Figure 3, one can see that the price drop in October 2004 coincided with the price hitting a strong weekly resistance level.

So by comparing Ichimoku charts of different time frame, one can gauge where support and resistance levels exist and then better position oneself in the market.

This section only scratches the surface of this wonderful charting technique and as more charting applications provide this tool for traders, we believe that most traders will not want to trade without it.

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乾坤燭 | 一目均衡圖

報價--- 請選擇 ---http://www.prosticks.com.hk/tech_ichimoku.asp (1 of 4)2006-6-1 22:55:43

乾坤燭 | 一目均衡圖

計算方法

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乾坤燭 | 一目均衡圖

一目均衡圖由五組參數合成，與現在常用的移動平均線吻合。參數建基於各個長短周期的高低點，提供一明確簡單的走勢圖。 五個參數如下：

1) 短軸快線 = 轉換線 = (9日內最高 + 9日內最低) / 2， 以9日為一短線周期 (周期長短可任意更改)

2) 中軸慢線 = 基準線 = (26日內最高 + 26日內最低) / 2， 以26日為一中線周期 (周期長短可任意)

3) 後移指標 = 遲行帶 = 將是日收市價後移至一中線周期

4) 前移指標A = 先行帶A = (短軸快線 + 中軸慢線) / 2， 前移至一中線周期 5) 前移指標B = 先行帶B = (52日內最高 + 52日內最低) / 2， 前移至一中線周期 雲帶 = 前移指標A及前移指標B的空間 上圖為一目均衡圖的例子。

闡釋

一目均衡圖與現今技術分析的移動平均線黃金交叉十分相似。 買入訊號發出當短軸快線上跨中軸慢線，賣出訊號則相反。

一目均衡圖最大的優點是能將買入、賣出訊號量化。若黃金交叉出現而價格發生在雲帶上(下)，則為強勢訊號，以三個箭咀代表；若黃金交叉出現而價格發生在雲帶中，則為中性訊號，以兩個箭咀代表；若黃金交叉出現而價格發生在雲帶相反方向，則為一弱勢訊號，以單一箭咀代表。 一目均衡圖的雲帶可作支持及阻力點。若市況在雲帶上徘徊，則市況偏好；反之，則偏淡。 後移指標更能量化買入、賣出訊號。若交叉買點發生在後移指標之上，則主強勢；反之，則主弱勢。 參數

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乾坤燭 | 一目均衡圖

周期主要以三個時段區分： 短 = 9日 (1周半) 中 = 26日 (1月) 長 = 52日 (2月)

三十年代，日本人每周工作六天，故有上述周期的設立。

現代每周只工作五天，故相關周期應否改為7, 22, 44呢? 留待用家考證。

乾坤一目均衡圖

一目均衡圖是以高、低及收市價為基礎。

乾坤燭的參數，聚焦點便是針對市場高、低及收市價的缺點，與所有傳統技術分析工具兼容。若以乾坤燭的參數代入一目均衡圖內，投資者便可以從另一層面看這一技術圖表。

乾坤燭圖表更可讓用家自行擬定周期，應用於不同的財經工具，作一測試，使這一日本百年前的發明更能溶入現代的財經產品。

Copyright 2005 乾坤燭有限公司 版權所有 不得轉載。 乾坤燭有限公司、交易所、恒指服務有限公司、紐約交易所、Nasdaq、多倫多交易所、深圳交易所、上海交易所 只能盡量確保所提拱的資訊之正確性或可靠性，但並不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性；本公司對於因資料任何部分之錯誤或疏失所生之任何直接、間接、附帶的或因此而導致之衍生性損失概不負責。本網站現時提供延

遲一小時更新之港股及指數報價。外匯及金／銀提供延遲二十分鐘更新。

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一目均衡表（Ichimoku云图）

此技术分析法是由二战前一个自称一目山人（笔名）的东京新闻作者发明的，问世后，ichimoku云图遂成为日本交易员常用的技术分析工具，不仅是股票交易，外汇，债券，指数，商品和期权也成为其广泛应用的战场。字面上讲，ichimoku表示一目了然，ichimoku云图的风格直观描述了一目均衡表――一目均衡价格表。

一目山人原名细田吾一，他关于云图的说明书最终出现于1968年，所有的计算无非包括通过变换取用历史最高价和最低价的中点，而且一张完整的图表达了价格走势的全景。多年来，细田雇用学生通过大量统计计算以得出最佳的公式，在个人电脑甚至计算器发明之前，工作量是巨大的。他于1983年去世，但他不苟的工作精神已经以ichimoku云图的形式深入了电脑化的交易室。

根据译者的经验，用此工具研判美元兑日元，欧元兑日元和黄金，日经指数等日本交易商积极参予的市场，该指标很有作用。

一、 Ichimoku云图的结构 如图1

一个Ichimoku云图包括：

1． 基准线 （standard line） 2． 转折线 (turning line) 3． 迟滞线 (delayed line)

4． 第一先行跨度 (the first preceding span) 5． 第二先行跨度 (the second preceding span)

当天的基准线上的点是由下面的公式计算出来的

N日内高点中的最大值＋N日内低点中的最大值 基准线＝2

这里N取过去的26天，包括当天

以相同的方法，转折线的计算方法是

n日内高点的最大值＋n日内低点中的最小值 转折线＝2

这里n取过去9天，包括当天。

现在在一个叫均衡表的表格中记录下这两个数字，接下来，在该表中记录下当天收盘价，但该价格在表中应记录在当天前的26天相应的位置上。这一点就成为迟滞线。

第一先行跨度公式是取用基准线和转折线的数据

基准线＋转折线 第一先行跨度＝2

数值记录在该表当天后的26天上，包括当天。

最后，第二先行跨度是采用历史价格，按以下公式计算

A天内高点的最大值+A天内低点的最小值

第二先行跨度＝2 表1

这里A取用52天，包括当天，该数据同样也记录在该表当天后的26天上，包括当天。我们可以用MS OFFICE中的表格工具或分析软件来执行这一计算，并在图中画出计算所得的数据，如表一。

相似但不同

ichimoku和移动平均技术分析法相似，但其取用的数据，不同于移动平均分析法。Ichimoku取用的是历史高点和低点作为分析参数，而移动平均法用的是收盘价数列。细田相信，在一个时间跨度的价格中，中点更能体现价格的特征。

请注意在公式中运用的这几个时间跨度，9，26，52 天。在此分析法的设计和测试阶段，26天跨度对应的是一个月内工作日的天数（包括星期六），而9，26，52则分别表示一个半星期，一个月，和2个月。

另一些更接近当今市场的时间值可能更具有预测性。在图一的例证中，我们采用的是ichimoku原始的公式，此图是东京商品交易所交易的黄金期货走势图。数据来源于交易网站，图中显示的是黄金期货2000年6月合约。（1999年7月1日到2000年6月27） ichimoku图的实际用法 如图2

图二是采用同一段数据，用同样的时间跨度（9和26天，和ichimoku云图基准线和转折线启用的参数相同）计算出来的移动平均。我们可以看到，移动平均比基准线和转折线更平滑。除了这个不同外，传统的移动平均技术和ichimoku基准/转折线都能给出相似的结果。在移动平均法中，一个买入信号就是转折线交*上穿基准线，而卖点则相反。在ichimoku云图的用法也类似。

移动平均反映了投资者对于一定时期内收盘平均价的多数一致的预期。黄金价格不会过度上升，偏离移动平均太远。这个论点也能运用于ichimoku法对于在一定时间跨度内市场预期的分析。

如果市场价格不能突破高点和低点的中值，价格将升不了多远。Ichimoku云图是跟随趋势的分析指标，所以，应用它可以成功预测中长期的交易趋势行情。但是，用于横盘整理行情却表现不佳。（就像我前面提到的，ichimoku云图设计于有电脑和计算器的年代前；似乎应用中点的计算量要比应用移动平均来得少）。

更深层说明

让我们来看看迟滞线，首先必须注意，它是现行价格的滞后反应，所以它的终点表示最近的收盘价。因此，你可以回到它的终点并检验它是高于还是低于前面指定的那一天的收盘价。例如，在黄金市场上，当迟滞线高于那天收盘价，表明黄金市场已经走强，否则，黄金价格将下跌。说穿了其实就是简单地比较现行价格和上个月的同期价格，快速比较是迟滞线的唯一用途。

Ichimoku技术分析法的独创性在于用先行线来定义支撑和压力水平。基准线和转折线表明了市场参与者在一定时间段上的一致意见，所以，一个上升趋势将展现连续的低点上移，而一个下降趋势将显示连续的高点下移。

一个日本老人曾经说过“就市问市”，有了这个理念，黄金市场的现行价格应该包含投资者所知道的所有信息。所以，基准线和转折线的平均值必定是最好的预测未来价格的指标。而这就是ichimoku云图中的第一先行跨度。

一个由计算过去52天（2个月）中最高点和最低点的中值所得得趋势应该包含过去市场所有供求预期的因素。这一趋势就是通过1个月的时间切换来表现的第二先行跨度。

这两个先行跨度之间的区域就是“云”，它表示了支撑和压力。价格上升突破云表示突破了压力位。同样，这个概念和移动平均的很相似。在观察并定义了压力或支撑位，市场对黄金价格的预期很可能在短期内转变，并使价格重新回到云中（支撑和压力区中）。但是，这种陷阱或假破的风险在ichimoku云图中要比移动平均少，因为ichimoku中的两个先行跨度在未来故意被错开了（精确来说，在细田的公式中是一个月）。当金价徘徊于或接近云，最好的方法就是等待市场价格上破或下破云。一旦价格上破云，太阳的光芒将照亮前途，这时就是买入时机。如果价格下破云，价格将如倾盆大雨，这时就是卖出时机。

一旦迟滞线，基准线/转折线和云都显示同样的买入或卖出信号，该图将显示一个中长期趋势。不过对于横盘行情，ichimoku趋势跟踪系统将是有风险的，可参考振荡量指标来结合判断。 总结：

ichimoku云图是一个趋势跟踪系统，它有着和移动平均相似的指标。它独一无二的特点就是建立在趋势线按时间切换的战略上的，迟滞线代表过去，而先行线代表将来。通过这个，我们可以观察到市场时间，压力或支撑和可能的假破。所有这些都在一个图中有一个全景浏览。

时间跨度9，26和52可能在当今市场上需要调整，因为证券市场当今已不能在周六交易了。Ichimoku云图可以在EXCEL或LOTUS中的工作表中轻易的构筑出来。时间跨度的优化值无需多少时候就可以通过工作表来求得。

当然，在当今的应用中也有些不便的地方，因为有些市场，如外汇交易是全球24小时的，我们必须去定义开盘和收盘时间。而且，金融衍生品相对短期。但是，熟悉这些问题的分析师可以把ichimoku云图实质应用于任何市场。